Bowery Yard
Bowery Yard AnalysisJune 2026~6 min read

Two Subways

The MTA publishes every delay, every rider, every elevator. Spend a weekend with the data and a different city emerges - one where the same fare buys two very different subway systems.

21.7%
Peak B-train riders 5+ min late
65.2%
Bronx 2025 ridership vs 2019
28%
Stations fully ADA-accessible
185k
Missing Bronx weekday trips / day

Ride the New York subway long enough and you develop opinions about which lines are cursed. Most of those opinions are right.

01The headline

Same fare. Same map. Two systems.

The MTA's “Customer Journey-Focused Metrics” dataset measures perhaps the most important rider outcome: what share of riders, at rush hour, arrived more than five minutes late? Over the twelve months ending April 2026, the answer for the B was 21.7%. The Q was 21.4%. The D, 19.5%. The M, 19.3%.

Two riders each pay $2.90. One has a 9% chance of arriving five minutes late. The other has a 22% chance.

Share of peak-hour riders delayed 5+ minutes, by subway line.
Fig. 1Share of peak-hour passengers who arrived 5+ minutes late, by line, 12 months ending April 2026.

One in five riders on the B arrives more than five minutes late during rush hour. On the L, it's fewer than one in ten. Two riders paying the same fare can have dramatically different experiences depending on which platform they stand on.

02The BMT trunks

The worst lines have lagged the system for a decade

The four worst-performing lines for delayed peak journeys — B, Q, D, M — all share BMT infrastructure through Brooklyn, running on signals built when Coolidge was president. The best performers — L and 7 — both have CBTC signaling installed.

This isn't an anomaly. It's a ten-year trend.

12-month rolling terminal on-time performance by line, 2015 onward.
Fig. 212-month rolling share of trains arriving on time at terminals, 2015 onward. The L's improvement coincides closely with CBTC rollout.

The timing strongly coincides with CBTC rollout - the L's improvement arrives in the months immediately following full installation. The 7 followed. Every other major line still relies primarily on legacy relay-based signaling.

03The cause ledger

Aging steel is most of the story

When the MTA classifies the cause of each delayed train, one category swallows almost everything else.

Delay-causing incidents stacked by category, top 10 lines, 12-month total.
Fig. 3Delay-causing incidents by category - top 10 lines, 12-month total. 'Infrastructure & Equipment' is the dark band; 'Crew availability' is the thin gold sliver at the bottom of every bar.

“Infrastructure & Equipment” — track, signals, power, rolling stock — accounts for more than a third of every line's delay ledger. “Planned ROW Work” — i.e., announced track shutdowns — adds another fifth. Together they explain more than half the delays on every line. Crew availability is near the bottom.

The story New Yorkers tell themselves about delays (operator error, sick passengers, people on the tracks) is at most a third of the actual ledger. The dominant cause is the same one the MTA's last four capital plans have asked Albany to fund.

Every borough recovered. Except the Bronx, which is stuck at 65.2% of its 2019 ridership.
The borough that never came back
04The borough gap

Where the riders actually are

The borough story is where the data gets unfair.

2025 ridership as a percentage of 2019, by borough.
Fig. 42025 ridership as a share of 2019 baseline, by borough. The Bronx is the only borough still under 70%.

Six years after the pandemic, every other borough is now in the 76-81% range — still well below 2019, but trending up. The Bronx is stuck at 65.2%.

That's not a small gap. The Bronx in 2025 lost 1.4 percentage points of its share of the entire subway system - a borough that was already only 8% of ridership is now under 7%. 48 million fewer annual trips than 2019, or roughly 185,000 missing weekday trips a day. The recovery elsewhere wasn't enough to offset the Bronx's losses.

05Origin vs destination

Manhattan rides home. The Bronx rides to work.

The hourly ridership data tells you who the system is for. And who it serves most effectively.

Weekday hourly ridership shape by borough, normalized to each borough's peak.
Fig. 5Weekday hourly ridership shape by borough, normalized to each borough's own peak hour.

Manhattan ridership peaks at 5pm - the homebound commute, for people who work in Manhattan, not who live there. Brooklyn and Queens peak around 8am. The Bronx peaks at 7am — the shift-worker hour.

When the B and the Q underperform on the morning peak, the riders who absorb it are the ones leaving the Bronx and outer Brooklyn at 6am to make a 7am shift in a Midtown lobby or a hospital basement.

06The elevator gap

Two out of three stations have no elevator

Of the city's 445 station complexes, only 123 are fully ADA-accessible - 28%. The rest you climb.

ADA accessibility by borough - fully accessible stations vs total.
Fig. 6Station complexes with full ADA access (dark) vs. without (sage), by borough. Brooklyn has the most stations and the worst access rate.

The pattern is difficult to defend. Manhattan, the borough with the deepest pockets and the densest stations, is also the most accessible at 41%. Brooklyn - the second-largest ridership borough - is the worst at 22%. Of Brooklyn's 156 stations, 122 have no elevator.

For many wheelchair users, crossing Brooklyn often means relying on Access-A-Ride instead, where the average wait is over an hour and on-time performance is unmeasured.

And it isn't just the small stations. The fifteen busiest stations in the entire system without full elevator access carried 148 million riders in 2025 - combined, that's more than every Bronx station put together (90M).

The 15 busiest subway station complexes that lack full ADA access.
Fig. 7The 15 busiest station complexes in the system without full ADA access, ranked by 2025 ridership.

14 St-Union Sq (4,5,6,L,N,Q,R,W) alone moved 24.5 million people - more than the four busiest Bronx stations combined. The MTA opened one elevator at the northeast corner in 2025. One entrance, out of many.

Same fare. Different subway.

07What the aggregate hides

The system isn't one system

The MTA frames its performance reports as system-wide percentages. About 80% of trains on time. About 28% of stations with elevators. Aggregate numbers.

But the system isn't one system. The 7 and the B share nothing but the fare. The Bronx in 2025 isn't the Bronx in 2019. A wheelchair user in Brooklyn isn't a subway rider at all.

The map shows one subway. The data shows two.

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Method

How this was built

Six monthly performance datasets from NYC State Open Data (terminal OTP, trains delayed, delay-causing incidents, customer journey metrics, wait assessment, service delivered), plus the full Hourly Ridership feed for 2019 and 2025 - aggregated server-side via Socrata $select / $group to avoid downloading the full 600 MB. Station accessibility comes from the Stations & Complexes dataset; elevator counts from the Asset Inventory feed. Charts are matplotlib + the Bowery Yard brand palette. On-time performance window is the rolling 12 months ending April 2026. All scripts in analysis/subway/.

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